Speculating on the Future of Alien

The recent deal between Disney and 21st Century Fox involves the acquisition of all of Fox's film library. Specifically, the subject of my interest is the Alien franchise and what I'd do with it if I were Disney.

Author's Notes: Most of what follows is conjecture on my part, unless otherwise supported with external links. Also, the Predator franchise is beyond the scope of this post.

Last we saw, the colony ship Covenant was bound for Origae 6, piloted by Peter Weyland's mad android son David. To be clear, I'm not here to argue the merits and debits of Alien: Covenant (but you can click here for my thoughts).

Comments like this one, attributed to Fox Executive Fred Baron (in this article) are what matter in the context of this post:

"(Alien: Covenant) got great reviews and was everything we set out for it to be, it just didn't hit the note at the box office. It will be a profitable film for the studio but whether there's another one (is uncertain)."

What is plainly evident is that the film was nowhere near the hit that 20th Century Fox and/or Ridley Scott expected, and certainly not close to what was needed to rubber stamp another installment. The future is even cloudier, with 21st Century Fox recently agreeing to sell its entire film library to Disney.

So, where shall we go from here? More below the jump:

The Ridley Scott Question.

Photo from: https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1599986/alien-covenant.jpg?w=736

Ever since Prometheus was announced, Ridley Scott has been the primary creative force behind the Alien franchise. Before we get into whether Scott is the right person to move the franchise forward, let's not forget this was a genuine cause for celebration at the time, given the state of the franchise after Alien vs. Predator: Requiem. 

Going a bit further, I understand the frustration of fans as it regards many of Scott's creative choices with Prometheus and Alien: Covenant, but I'm inclined to disagree with those who think this franchise is currently at low ebb. There's no underselling how much Scott's return to the series reinvigorated Alien as a viable creative property, and we wouldn't be here today discussing the future of the franchise without his involvement.

Having said that, I'd also argue that when you're talking about the future of the franchise, there's really only one thing left for Scott to do, and that's finish off the 'David' arc.

There's a big reason, and a few smaller reasons why I think this is the case:

1. Scott is 80 years old. Even if Scott had a complete script for a sequel, and even allowing for Scott's amazing ability to work quickly and efficiently during production, such a film is likely 2-3 years away from released. Betting on Scott following that point would be too much of a financial risk for any studio, regardless of how well the film performs.
2. While Scott can deliver striking visuals, manage a production, and maximize his production assets - he might not be the best choice making final creative decisions. Alien was a creative fusion of Scott in combination with strong creative, independent minds such as Dan O'Bannon, H.R. Giger, and Walter Hill (among others). Further, in Hill's specific case as producer, he had enough creative control to accept Scott's good ideas while vetoing bad ones.
3. One major element the fanbase wants - the Xenomorph scaring the shit out of everyone in new and interesting ways - is one element Scott has very little interest in.
4. It's been the subject of endless speculation, but the appearance is that Fox killed Neill Blomkamp's proposed Aliens sequel at Scott's behest. This is not to say that Blomkamp's proposed film would've been great (or terrible) - we may never know. Given Scott's age and creative decision making, Fox might have been better served to have alternative options at the ready - especially considering how many story variations Scott went through before Alien: Covenant finally went into production.
5. I submit the box office returns for Alien: Covenant (screenshot from Box Office Mojo): 

The bottom line for me is this - I have no objection to giving Ridley Scott one more film to close out the 'David' arc. Frankly (despite many other misgivings), I love Michael Fassbender in this role so much that I want to see him as David one more time, and see where else he and Scott can take the character.

After that point, however, it's definitely time to move on. If I were Disney, I'd start planning for a new direction while "passively" hoping Fox closes the 'David' arc with Scott if they so choose.

If Fox is going this direction before turning over control of the franchise, I'd recommend giving Scott a lower budget (no more than $70-$80 million) so that it has a chance to generate profit at $175-$200 million worldwide or higher (based on the commonly used 2.5 multiplier when calculating the break-even point, based on the production budget).

Speaking of budgets and box office, there's more on this below...

What Could An Alien Film Realistically Achieve at the Box Office?

Let's take a look at 3 R-rated genre films which came out in the last couple of years, which were highly successful at the box office. Numbers (i.e. budget, domestic) will be adjusted for 2018, using Box Office Mojo. I'm choosing to ignore international numbers, as it's difficult to accurately compare modern films to Alien and Aliens.

• Deadpool (2016). Adjusted Budget $60 million. Adjusted Domestic Total $388 million.
• Logan (2017). Adjusted Budget $98 million. Adjusted Domestic Total $234 million.
• It (2017). Adjusted Budget $35 million. Adjusted Domestic Total $335 million.

Now, let's look at Alien and Aliens, adjust their budget for inflation, and adjust their domestic performance for 2018.

• Alien (1979) Adjusted Budget $37.9 million ($11 million). Adjusted Domestic Total $288 million ($80 million).
• Aliens (1986). Adjusted Budget $41.6 million ($18.5 million). Adjusted Domestic Total $210 million ($85.1 million).

One important point which probably adds at least $25 million to the budget for both Alien and Aliens if they were made today is the use of CGI to handle effects as well as fix problems in post. Alien and Aliens were both classics of practical visual effects work, but (regrettably in many respects) those days have passed.

I think, based on what we can see above, the sweet spot "budget-wise" for an Alien film is somewhere in the $65-$75 million range. Enough to ensure profitability, but potential enough to entice filmmakers with a specific vision who can work modestly.

It's really hard to justify spending more than this on an Alien film, unless you're coming directly off a hit on the level of the recent films named above. One could argue that Logan and Deadpool have the benefit of being part of the Marvel comic universe (if not yet the Marvel Cinematic Universe) and the brand appeal which comes with it. However, in terms of brand appeal, what's the justification for the success of It, an adaptation of a 30 year old Stephen King novel which had already been adapted successfully as a TV miniseries?

I'd argue the success of these R-rated films is simple enough to explain. When thinking about Deadpool, Logan, and It (as well as Alien and Aliens) what sticks out in my mind was these stories stood on their own narratively, had three-dimensional (or relatable) characters, and delivered on audience expectations. Further (excepting Deadpool) they carried additional symbolic and allegorical layers if you chose to look for them.

In contrast (this is my opinion), both Prometheus and Alien: Covenant stumble at the basic level of plotting and character - even as the symbolic and allegorical content rewarded multiple viewings. It's essentially the difference between a blockbuster and a cult classic.

Based on the information above, as well as a comparison with other successful R rated genre films, I think a successful Alien film could achieve up to $250-$300 million domestically. 

What Could Be Explored (with some thoughts on canon)?

Let's assume that Disney does not want a third film in the 'David Arc' (which likely means the end of Ridley Scott's involvement) and/or Fox decides to handle it themselves. Thus, Disney decides on a soft reboot. Let's make some decisions on what's canon, what's not canon, and what storytelling avenues are left open to a new creative team / filmmaker. Here's my thoughts:

Canon

• Prometheus.
• Alien: Covenant.
• Alien.
• Aliens.
• Alien 3.
• Alien: Resurrection.

Possibly Canon

• Alien: Isolation.

Not Canon

• Alien vs. Predator.
• Alien vs. Predator: Requiem.
• Aliens: Colonial Marines.

So, having made those decisions, I'll make a few additional choices:

• Let Disney decide whether or not to revive Blomkamp's concept for an Aliens sequel.
• If there's a 3rd film in the 'David' arc, do not tie it directly into Alien. Alluding to Alien, hinting at Alien, or implying Alien is fine. This universe does not need a bow tying things together. Maybe also restore the mystery of the xenomorph while you're at it.
• I'm not doing anything following Alien: Resurrection. In terms of the timeline, it feels so far removed from everything else that it's like a pocket universe. 
• I'd love to see Alien: Isolation turned into a premium television series, which shows the collapse of Seegson & economic collapse of Sevastopol Station in the 1st 2 seasons, the story of the Anesidora starting in Season 3, the infestation of the station in Season 4, and Amanda Ripley's story (i.e. the game's general narrative) in Season 5, though the problem is that we know how the story ends.
• As tempting as it might be, I'm not doing an Aliens prequel involving Hadley's Hope, because (again) the problem is that we know exactly how it ends.
• If we're doing an Alien vs. Predator film, let's do something like the original Dark Horse comic series set on Ryushi which expands the universe instead of constricting it.

What are some threads we could explore?

• Does Weyland-Yutani ever do any follow-up on the Nostromo's disappearance, or even the disappearance of the Prometheus?
• Does anyone else stumble across either the derelict's signal, or alternately... does anyone else stumble across Shaw's warning message?
• Aliens: Colonial Marines tried (and failed, in my opinion) to come up with an interesting story about the follow-up to the Sulaco's mission to Acheron. That would be worth exploring.
• It's possible the derelict and some eggs survived the explosion of the atmosphere processor.
• Alien: Isolation presented the idea of competing corporations with Seegson. What if a former Weyland-Yutanti executive takes information about the xenomorph to a competitor (a la Dennis Nedry in Jurassic Park)?
• Invert the Weyland-Yutani corporate trope and come up with a company official who actually decides to do the right thing when encountering the xenomorph.
• There's 200 years to play with between Alien 3 and Alien: Resurrection as well, showing the end of Weyland-Yutani's dominance, Earth's decline, rise of military power, etc.
• Go completely away from everything we've seen thus far; given all of the colonies, supply stations, starships, and such, it's reasonable to think at some point that someone somewhere stumbles across a xenomorph infestation at some point.

Now, the fun part.

Who would you hire?

Before we get into potential directors, it should be noted that Disney is entirely capable of hiring an overseeing producer for this series, as they did with Kathleen Kennedy for LucasFilm (e.g. Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc.). Frankly, I'm not sure who would be an ideal pick for the Alien franchise in that respect. That being said...

I'm going to try and keep this realistic - in other words, who could I hire that would likely deliver an intelligent, compelling, unique, and SCARY AS FUCK Alien film on a budget of $65-$75 million?

My criteria in judging potential filmmakers is based on those who:

• Are not currently stewards of (or planning to steward) a franchise. 
• Have proven they can work on a modest budget. 
• Have some background in science fiction/fantasy/horror.
• Have experience with visual effects and how to properly use them (i.e. know how to minimize CGI, maximize practical effects, and let them serve the story, not the other way around).
• Have creative visuals as well as command of craft.

As of this writing, this rules out current A-list directors such as James Cameron (Avatar), Denis Villenueve (Dune), Matt Reeves (Batman), JJ Abrams (Star Trek and Star Wars), Rian Johnson (Star Wars), Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman), James Gunn (Guardians of the Galaxy), among many others. 

Big name filmmakers who theoretically could do this, but I doubt you could get for various reasons might include Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Peter Jackson, Quentin Tarantino, Paul Thomas Anderson, and David Fincher. I should probably include more polarizing choices such as Michael Bay & Zack Snyder in this section as well.

All of that in mind, here's my short list of filmmakers, with some of the films they've made. More specifically, films which - in my opinion - indicate they could be great with an Alien film:

• Guillermo del Toro (his whole filmography).
• Kathryn Bigelow (Near Dark, Strange Days, Zero Dark Thirty).
• Alfonso Cuaron (Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban, Children of Men, Gravity).
• Joon-ho Bong (Snowpiercer, Okja).
• Alex Garland (Sunshine, Ex Machina, Annihilation).

Here are some other filmmakers I'd consider, with some reservations:

• Brad Bird (The Iron Giant, The Incredibles, MI 4: Ghost Protocol).
• Darren Aronofsky (The Fountain, Black Swan, Mother!).
• Neill Blomkamp (his whole filmography).
• Joseph Kosinski (Tron: Legacy, Oblivion).
• Duncan Jones (Moon, Source Code).
• Mike Flanagan (Gerald's Game, Doctor Sleep).
• Leigh Whannell (Upgrade, The Invisible Man).
• Jordan Peele (Get Out, Us).

If you want a director who's more of an artisan than an artist, I'd start with these filmmakers:

• Steven Soderbergh (Traffic, Solaris, Contagion).
• James Mangold (3:10 to Yuma, Logan).
• Gore Verbinski (The Ring, Rango, A Cure for Wellness).
• Francis Lawrence (Constantine, I Am Legend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire & Mockingjay).

Lastly, here are a few filmmakers who've done quality work the last few years on lower budget films and/or television and who might be ready to make the leap into a franchise like Alien.

• David Robert Mitchell (It Follows).
• Jennifer Kent (The Babadook).
• Michelle MacLaren (Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones).
• Trey Edward Shults (It Comes at Night).

All that said, and more than anything else, I want a filmmaker who has genuine passion for this universe - of the kind that Creative Assembly brought to Alien: Isolation.

Closing Thoughts

Not since the release of Alien vs. Predator: Requiem has this franchise been in such a tenuous position.

Even if Fox or Disney were inclined to pursue a sequel to Alien: Covenant directed by Ridley Scott, Scott's age is reason enough to start evaluating which direction to take the Alien franchise. Going further, the divisive reaction from fans and audiences towards both Prometheus and Alien: Covenant also makes a third film in this story arc a tenuous proposition from a box office perspective.

If Disney is inclined to continue the franchise, a soft reboot is the most likely path to success. Given the success of recent R-rated genre films like Deadpool, Logan, and It, there's no reason to suspect the right Alien film couldn't be similarly successful.

Most importantly, there are plenty of open threads to explore in this universe which offer both the chance for a compelling and exciting film, as well as the opportunity for a talented and engaged filmmaker to make an artistic statement.

Let's hope that Disney gets this right.

Author's Note - All screenshots from Alien, Aliens from Movie Screencaps.com.