Some people don't think Dean Spanos or the National Football League meant it when they moved the Chargers to Los Angeles in January? Not even when they moved their equipment and materials from Murphy Canyon this summer? Not even with their "Fight for LA" campaign?
Maybe the team and league is panicking over their preseason numbers. One (unidentified) source alleges this is the case. Spanos says otherwise.
I hope it's true, for my own personal schadenfreude regarding the Spanos family, but that hope certainly doesn't make it true.
More importantly, the problem I have is the long leap people are making from the alleged panic over preseason attendance to the possibility of the Chargers returning to San Diego.
Every single one of the stories which lay out why the Chargers are eventually returning to San Diego are built on speculation and fantasy. Nothing has been stated or proposed which would indicate a return to San Diego is a real possibility.
I'll go a step further... people who tell these stories are trading on the anger and heartbreak of San Diego sports fans for personal gain, and I think that is utterly fucking terrible.
All that said, let's get into why the Chargers are going to be staying in Los Angeles for a long time.
More below the jump...
A Rough Estimate of the Chargers Relocation Costs.
Back in January, when I tore the Spanos family to shreds over their decision to move to Los Angeles (hereafter LA), I (very roughly) laid out the enormous cost of relocation for the franchise.
Let's do so again for clarity's sake:
The NFL approved a debt waiver for Spanos to finance his relocation costs. The debt ceiling prohibits owners from excessively using their franchises as collateral for other interests. In short, this means Spanos couldn't afford to pay the relocation costs out-of-pocket.
- Spanos, by financing the relocation fee over several years, will pay $645 million once he moves into the stadium in Inglewood.
- The team is leasing temporary headquarters in Costa Mesa.
- The team physically relocated equipment and materials from San Diego (hereafter SD).
- The team will also need to build a new practice and training facility, along with permanent team headquarters. Fred Roggin of NBCLA has estimated this will cost at least $100 million.
- That's close to $750 million in relocation costs, plus interest on his loans from Goldman Sachs. All told, the Chargers will probably pay well over $1 billion to complete and pay off the move to LA over the next 20-30 years.
Given those points, here's my very simple question to everyone who remotely speculates the Chargers might move back to SD. Why would ANYONE eat any amount of that relocation cost until they had (at the very least) recouped their investment?
Further, once the stadium in Inglewood opens, the Chargers will have full access to the enormous corporate and entertainment capital LA provides. It stands to reason they would have to stay in Inglewood long enough to recoup their investment.
If they recoup quickly (within 10 years in LA), that means they are making bank in LA and so why would they move back to SD? If they recoup slowly (longer than 10 years in LA) , they'll still recoup faster than they would in SD, so why delay the process longer than necessary?
Could the Chargers Return to San Diego?
Let's now suppose that despite swimming in cash, the Spanos family has decided over the years that moving to LA tastes like ashes in their mouth. For example:
Sean McVay and Jared Goff take the Rams to sustained success in LA, with a Super Bowl win or two over the next 10-15 years. On the other hand, the Chargers never find an adequate replacement for Philip Rivers and flounder in the AFC West while Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes duel for dominance over the next 10-15 years. Chargers' home games in Inglewood become either a party for whomever the visiting team is that week, or a half-empty sparkling Necropolis. Sponsors and advertisers want reduced rates, as do season-ticket and luxury box owners, relegating the Chargers to long-term purgatory.
Author's Note: Nothing would make me happier than the example I just provided.
This is the only real-ish scenario I can imagine which might even prompt the Chargers to consider moving back to SD, and my first point is that this example will take well over a decade to play out.
Those assumptions made, one thing which many point to is the Chargers virtual no-cost lease in Inglewood. With the lease running $1 per year, it would seem relatively easy to exit the lease, and there's no doubt the Rams would love to have LA to themselves.
Let's also assume any entanglements regarding funding the construction of the stadium in Inglewood (regarding Personal Seat Licenses, Naming Rights, etc.) can be resolved in manner which satisfies the Rams, Chargers, and NFL.
The Spanos family would still have to make a deal for a new stadium in SD, and play the remaining 3 years in Inglewood until the SD stadium is ready because San Diego / Jack Murphy / Qualcomm / Stadium will be long since gone, the Chargers won't want to play in an MLS stadium in SD (if SoccerCity comes to pass), and the Padres would loathe having to share Petco Park.
Alternately, some have suggested the Spanos family could sell the team to someone who moves them back to SD. Of course, the person purchasing the team would be purchasing them at LA prices - probably north of $5 billion in 10-20 years time and then moving them to a market where they'd be worth around $3 billion with a new stadium.
Either way, that sounds like a 20 year process to me, and both are highly unlikely for the reasons outlined above.
On top of everything I've already said, all of this simultaneously assumes SD can find competent (excuse me, but... ahahahahaha!!!) political leadership, find a suitable stadium site, and one (or more) of the following occurs:
- SD's citizenry is willing to make a deal with the Spanos family for partial taxpayer funding of a new stadium, less than 20 years after they burned SD trying to get to LA.
- The NFL's stadium arms race has died off and/or city and state governments have wizened up, resulting in smaller facilities which are 100% privately funded.
- SD's biotech industry has exploded, providing the kind of wealthy customer base which renders the top 2 points moot.
With that in mind, let me offer an alternative...
If The Odds Are Long Anyway, Shoot for The Moon.
Since it would realistically take a couple of decades to bring the Chargers back to SD, why not just shoot for the moon and try to land an expansion franchise instead?
Like I suggested earlier this year:
SD should start planning now for a potential NFL return after 10-15 years have passed, and there's a chance stadium costs have been forced down, or a chance SD's biotech industry has exploded. Here's what that kind of planning entails:
- Start identifying potential stadium locations within the City and County of San Diego.
- Determine who owns the land and which agencies have jurisdiction over the land.
- Emphasize locations which are suitable for mixed-use development or begging for redevelopment, and start discussions with potential interested parties.
- Start figuring out a responsible means of providing limited public financing (I'd like to add that a successful vote here is much more likely for a new ownership group than it ever would be for the Spanos family).
- See if there's any hint of a "white knight" ownership group interested.
The odds of this happening are admittedly low. But if I already know my chances of bringing the NFL back to SD are situated between slim and none, why not at least pursue the path which doesn't involve the Spanos family?
Let's be real about this. The Spanos family have proven to be mediocre stewards of the Chargers since taking control of the franchise in 1984. They've had some successes, and a few more failures. To be fair, they've also done charity work over the years in SD.
Unless something drastically changes in LA, they're highly likely to be mediocre stewards of the Chargers over the next 20-30 years. So, why not take advantage of the opportunity to find the one thing which repeatedly proves to be the difference between successful franchises and unsuccessful franchises: Quality Ownership.
Aside from the win/loss record, the Spanos family also refused to allow the local college to provide a better fan experience at their college football games because they shared a stadium and had a narrative to protect.
Most importantly, the Spanos family are the same folks who do awful shit to employees today..
#Chargers waited until training camp ended to blow out equipment manager Bob Wick, who made move from SD. Was with team for 39 years.— Bernie Wilson (@berniewilson) August 24, 2017
Just as the Spanos family did awful shit to Don Coryell over 30 years ago.
As much as I'll miss rooting for the Chargers, I'll never miss this ownership.
Closing Thoughts.
The Chargers are not coming back to San Diego.
The Chargers are staying in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.
If San Diego has any chance to get the NFL back, pursue a new franchise with new ownership.
San Diego fans need to stop crying over the past and start working on the future.
San Diego media need to stop feeding stories which rely on manipulating fans and their feelings about the Chargers for impact.
Lastly, and most importantly, let LA deal with the Spanos family.
The Chargers are staying in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.
If San Diego has any chance to get the NFL back, pursue a new franchise with new ownership.
San Diego fans need to stop crying over the past and start working on the future.
San Diego media need to stop feeding stories which rely on manipulating fans and their feelings about the Chargers for impact.
Lastly, and most importantly, let LA deal with the Spanos family.
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