Considerations for Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins

Some thoughts on what the Miami Dolphins have with Tua Tagovailoa, what they could do next, and how to position themselves for long term contention in 2021.

This was a remarkable season of growth bookended by a pair of desultory performances. It started with a quarterback throwing 3 interceptions on the road against a divisional opponent and it likewise ended with a quarterback throwing 3 interceptions on the road against a divisional opponent. 

In between, the Dolphins flirted with defensive dominance, strong special teams, and had a good look at a playoff appearance. The coaching, particularly on defense and game management with a strong instinct for when to deploy gadget plays, helped to hide a very young roster and a wildly inconsistent offense. It resulted in a 10-win season where the Dolphins demonstrated their ability to control poorly coached opponents, as well as teams with limited QBs and limited rosters. 

On the other hand, they were 1-5 against 2020 playoff teams, and 0-4 against MVP caliber QBs (Josh Allen twice, early season Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes), which clearly indicates they aren't yet a championship caliber team. There's several questions on the offensive side of the ball, along with some holes on defense and a roster which  needs more quality depth after the 1st year of a rebuild.

Luckily, the Dolphins (thanks to the 2019 Laremy Tunsil trade with the Houston Texans), have 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, and at least $33 million in cap space space with which to address these issues.

Author's Note 1: Before we descend into the rabbit hole, I will note that there is conjecture regarding the status of current Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey, though he is on the Dolphins staff as of this writing. I will not discuss the offensive system, as it is beyond the scope of this post. That said...

Down the rabbit hole we go!

What About Tua Tagovailoa?

Tagovailoa's rookie season can be most optimistically described as a mixed bag. The team went 6-3 in his nine starts, which broke down as follows: some promising performances (at Arizona, vs Cincinnati), a few solid/mixed performances (vs LA Chargers, vs New England, vs Kansas City), a few bad performances (at Denver, at Las Vegas, at Buffalo), and one not really worth reviewing (vs LA Rams).

Ryan Fitzpatrick, the season opening QB, went 4-3 as a starter with some good performances (at Jacksonville, at San Francisco) some decent performances (against the Jets, vs Buffalo) and some bad performances (at New England, vs Seattle). Fitzpatrick notably relieved Tagovailoa twice, once in a comeback bid which came up short in Denver, and an utter miracle of a win at Las Vegas.

Starting with the Denver game, the offense with Tagovailoa struggled - regardless of the strength of opponent - for extended periods of time. It's one thing to have a rough game against the Bills in Buffalo, or in your first appearances against well-regarded defensive coaches like Vic Fangio and Bill Belichick. It's quite another to struggle moving the ball against bad defensive teams like the Raiders. What's worrisome is that Fangio gave the remaining teams a path to follow with Tagovailoa, and that Tagovailoa (and the Dolphins offense with him) struggled to adapt through the remainder of the season.

Some is personnel, some is scheme-related. But at least some is Tagovailoa related and that leads to the next, very painful question...

Did the Dolphins take the Wrong QB?

As of right now, yes.

It's admittedly awkward, but taking Tagovailoa ahead of Justin Herbert is especially damning at this point for the Dolphins, precisely because Tagovailoa was an injury risk leading into the draft, and the Dolphins still opted for Tagovailoa over the healthy and physically gifted Herbert (as an aside, had personnel departments known what Herbert's rookie season would look like, he would've gone 1st overall to the Cincinnati Bengals). Unfortunately, QB development in the NFL is never a sure thing, and there's no way to know whether Herbert will continue his stratospheric ascension, much less whether Tagovailoa (or Joe Burrow, or Jalen Hurts) will likewise improve, or regress.

But I think the Tagovailoa/Herbert conversation is interesting for a few reasons, and it sheds light on the Dolphins and their process. To be clear, this is the Dolphins' process, and I'm neither advocating for or against it - though it made sense to me at the time, hindsight and all that.

It was widely speculated that Tagovailoa might have to redshirt his rookie season to allow for complete rehabilitation from a career-threatening hip injury (and in retrospect, it may in fact have been the best course of action - I'll come back to this) he suffered on 11/16/19. 

I mention this because one possible reason for his late-season struggles is not the offseason changes forced by COVID-19 and resulting losses of minicamps, offseason meetings, workouts, preseason games, and the like - as demonstrated by performance of Justin Herbert and, to a lesser degree, Joe Burrow. Where Tagovailoa's situation clearly differs from them is in the focus of his offseason work. Because of the late season hip injury, Herbert and Burrow played extra games (4 and 5), some of which were against quality competition (2 for Herbert, 3 for Burrow) and got additional valuable snaps. Further, because they weren't rehabbing a critical injury, they were able to focus their offseason on developing their skills and refining their mechanics.

Again, for emphasis - the Dolphins KNEW and took Tagovailoa over Herbert anyway. Which means the Dolphins knew there was a possibility they would not know what they had with him by the end of the 2020 regular season. Further, because there were in Year One of their rebuild (2019 was the demolition, save your corrections), they likely did not anticipate being in playoff contention (they also couldn't have anticipated the Houston Texans' implosion, but here we are).

Also, keep in mind the Dolphins had almost a completely new offensive line group in 2020. The only player who started for the Dolphins OL in 2019 and returned as a starter in 2020 was Jesse Davis, a swing G/T who is valued for positional versatility as opposed to performance. Among that group were three draft picks.

It seems clear to me the plan was for Fitzpatrick to take the lumps behind the developing offensive line, allowing Tagovailoa to complete his rehabilitation, study from the sidelines, and be ready in 2021 a-la-Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City behind Alex Smith. But then a few things happened along the way...

Why Did the Dolphins Handle Tagovailoa This Way?

First, the Dolphins coaching staff did a terrific job of developing some of the young talent on the defensive side of the ball, and once CB Byron Jones became healthy, were able to craft highly disruptive defensive game plans which produced shorter fields via turnover, and reduced the need for the offense to play with high productivity and aggressiveness.

In other words, a suddenly competitive defensive team realized that a highly volatile veteran playing YOLO ball like Fitzpatrick might produce some standout offensive games (as was the case against the San Francisco 49ers), but was equally likely to have games where his propensity for risk-taking would negate any advantages the Dolphins' defense provided (as happened against the New England Patriots in the season opener).

Second, Tagovailoa was deemed fully healthy by the start of the regular season. There was no medical reason to protect him, and while there was benefit to him being on the sideline, there were the missed opportunities that come from him not getting the starter's reps in practices, along with being directly involved in game-planning and preparation. Considering Fitzpatrick's veteran experience in the offense directed by Gailey, the Dolphins realized Tagovailoa's opportunities for measurable growth would be accelerated by making him the starter, without significantly hindering Fitzpatrick's abilities if he had to play QB at any point down the road.

Third (as mentioned above), no one expected the 2021 1st round pick from the Houston Texans becoming the 3rd overall pick, in a draft with 3-4 well regarded QB prospects. Because of an opportunity no one could've foreseen, the Dolphins' hand on Tagovailoa was forced, as was reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter, though that report was refuted by Dolphins HC Brian Flores.

Add it all up - a defense oriented team which provides easy scoring opportunities, a veteran known for highly variable performance, and the need to figure out if your rookie QB is in fact the guy you want to build around - because of the opportunity presented for a reset without really risking losing games OR draft capital - the decision HC Brian Flores made to start Tagovailoa was quite logical, even if it wasn't necessarily planned for when the Dolphins drafted him. 

It was kind of an "eat your cake and have it too" situation, though it could be argued the decision in fact cost the Dolphins a playoff spot, if you think Fitzpatrick definitely gets the Dolphins a win against Denver (and set aside the likelihood of Fitzpatrick eventually performing poorly in a critical game). Unfortunately, as discussed earlier, Tagovailoa's performance has been just inconsistent enough that it invites the Dolphins to consider alterative options, as opposed to letting Tagovailoa stay on the bench for the season, and not play until 2021 (or until he was ready to operate the offense without training wheels). Which leads us to...

Do the Dolphins Need A New QB?

There's a lot of different thoughts, but let's go with the obvious ones.

First, the Dolphins should already know if Tagovailoa isn't the guy moving forward - compare his situation to how they handled Josh Rosen in 2019. The Dolphins acquired Josh Rosen (drafted 10th overall in 2018) in 2019 from the Arizona Cardinals for a 2nd round & 5th round pick. The Dolphins waited a couple of weeks into the 2019 season to see what they had in Rosen. After starting Rosen in Week 3, the experiment lasted exactly 2.5 games before Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup and Rosen was never seen again - when the Dolphins clearly had nothing to lose by playing him. 

In other words, Flores and GM Chris Grier have already demonstrated what happens once they've decided that a QB isn't the player they want to build around.

For that reason (barring an unexpected change/event during the offseason), I don't think the Dolphins will take a QB at 3 (unless the Dolphins' front office evaluation projects a definitely better player), simply because Tagovailoa hasn't been bad enough to write off. The most commonly cited instance of this happening when the Arizona Cardinals replaced Rosen with Kyler Murray, and had a demonstrably better result. 

Therefore, let's compare Tagovailoa's 1st season with some other recent 1st seasons...

Note: all comparisons from Pro Football Reference

Tagovailoa vs Rosen

Tagovailoa vs Burrow

Looking at the numbers, Tagovailoa has been demonstrably better than Rosen. Going a step further, there's not a huge difference between Tagovailoa and Burrow. Should the Cincinnati Bengals consider trading up for a chance at Fields / Wilson / Lance, especially with Burrow coming off a significant knee injury?

Tagovailoa vs Allen

Tagovailoa vs Murray

Setting aside the exceptional running ability of Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, shouldn't the Buffalo Bills have considered moving on after 1 season? Even in Murray's case, the passing numbers are not exceptionally better than Tagovailoa's. The counter argument here is the players were worth developing because of their elite physical attributes - but as mentioned above, the Dolphins had this option with Herbert and still chose Tagovailoa. Whatever the reason, they trusted their ability to develop Tagovailoa into a franchise QB more than they did with Herbert.

Some players also take longer to develop than others. Take Drew Brees, a player frequently compared to Tagovailoa. Brees was drafted in 2001, but did not become a high-quality starting QB until 2004. And while Josh Allen's physical tools clearly exceed Tagovailoa's, the Bills' patience with Allen has been amply rewarded with an MVP caliber season in his 3rd year, following 2 years of erratic play while the roster was built around him. The point is that patience is merited in Tagovailoa's case. By extension, we should also recognize and credit Justin Herbert's sensational rookie season as the unicorn it is. 

Speaking of Josh Allen, the bottom line for the Dolphins is this... Allen and the Buffalo Bills are now the roadblock in the AFC East. Grier and Flores must continue working on the roster until their team can beat the Buffalo Bills in December or January. Which leads us nicely into...

What to do with the 3rd Overall Pick?

Author's Note 1- Save the "trade the farm for Trevor Lawrence" takes. The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't trading that pick, and they shouldn't anyway if Lawrence is indeed the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, no matter what's offered.

Author's Note 2- Any discussion of specific players to be drafted will be affected by what the Dolphins do in Free Agency, which is beyond the scope of this post.

The options are as follows:

1. Take the best QB available - but only if you are convinced he represents an upgrade.
2. Take the most elite prospect available, regardless of position.
3. Trade the pick to another team and accumulate additional draft capital.

Option 1: The Dolphins - no matter what - must scout and determine if Ohio State's Justin Fields or BYU's Zach Wilson (or maybe North Dakota State's Trey Lance) could be better. And if they think any of those QBs have a better chance for success than Tagovailoa, they should draft that QB and not think twice. Let Tagovailoa and Fields / Wilson / Lance compete for the starting role.

As was discussed above, the Dolphins have made a substantial investment in Tagovailoa - knowing his developmental period could be extended due to his injury in college. To move on after 9 games would represent not only a wasted asset, but it would be an admission of systemic failure and should prompt significant investigation of the front office's evaluation process - if not the removal of the persons who made the decision.

Option 2: In this draft (as of this writing), this group of players would at least consist of the following: LB Micah Parsons (Penn State), OT Penei Sewell (Oregon), and WR Ja'Marr Chase (Louisiana State). At least 2 are likely to be available with the #3 pick and all play at glaring positions of need for the Dolphins. 

Defensively, the Dolphins have a lot of solid-to-very good players in their front 7, but no elite players to complement their investment in the defensive secondary with CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Parsons has a chance to make an already very good defense even better. The Dolphins did address the OL substantially in 2020 in the draft (and Free Agency), but the results were mixed at best and (as with the QB situation), you shouldn't pass on an elite player just because you like the players you drafted last season and expect to develop them (in this case OT Austin Jackson and RG/RT Robert Hunt). WR is a desperate position of need for the Dolphins. Behind WR Devante Parker (who would be a solid #2 receiver in an offense with quality playmakers and depth), the cupboard is filled with projects like oft-injured Preston Williams, Special Teamers like Jakeem Grant, and other assorted back-of-roster and practice squad types. Regardless of the QB, adding weapons on offense is a desperate need.

Option 3: Trade the #3 overall pick to a team who wants to secure an available quarterback and/or one of the elite prospects named above. If the Dolphins trade out, they would almost certainly accumulate an extra 1st round pick in the 2022 draft, which affords the team the draft capital and another potential out in the event Tagovailoa does not improve in 2021. Further, additional picks in 2021 would be accumulated as well, giving the Dolphins the chance to add more overall talent to the roster. Obviously, the danger is in losing out on the elite prospects the team had access to with the #3 overall pick.

Wrapping Things Up

It's not an easy call, but for me it breaks down like this - I doubt the Dolphins move on from Tua Tagovailoa after nine games, when they knew in advance his development was likely to extend into 2021 because of his college hip injury, and when his actual performance is generally in-line with other 1st year QBs. The Dolphins should only take a QB at #3 overall if they are convinced that player represents a substantial upgrade.

Miami, by virtue of possessing the #3 overall pick via Houston Texans, has a unique ability to either select a blue-chip talent at a position of need, or trade that pick to another team for additional picks to further fill out the roster and improve depth. The Dolphins are still in the middle of a rebuild and will need at least 1-2 more full cycles of drafting, free agency, and development before they can realistically compete with the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East, or with other Super Bowl contenders.

The Dolphins 10-win season wasn't a fluke, but it did represent a team with a flawed roster which very nearly played to its ceiling in 2020 thanks to a very good coaching staff. The challenge now is to identify how to advance the team from fringe playoff contender into legitimate playoff contender, and determine if and/or how Tagovailoa is the best route for that advance.